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Three digital economy priorities for Middle Eastern states

Digital Economy

For the Middle East, the digital economy should be considered a central pillar for long-term economic sustainability, geopolitical influence and global competitiveness.

Structural shifts in global energy markets, combined with the accelerating pace of technological advancements, have compelled many policymakers in the region to rethink traditional models of economic development. In this context, the digital economy is a foundation for national strategies that can help with diversification, resilience and modernization.

Countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE are at the forefront of this transformation. They have leveraged their financial resources and long-term strategic planning to position themselves as regional — and potentially global — leaders in digital innovation and the digital economy.

At the core of this transformation, nations should invest in three sectors: cybersecurity, financial technology and smart cities. These sectors serve as critical enablers of broader digital ecosystems.

These three sectors can boost the expansion of digital services, enhance economic efficiency and lead to more innovation across multiple sectors.

In addition, these domains are deeply interconnected. This means that advancements in one area reinforces progress in others. As such, they collectively form the backbone of a comprehensive digital strategy that can redefine the economic identity of the region.

Cybersecurity is undoubtedly a strategic imperative in the context of rapid digitalization across the Middle East. Since governments and private sectors increasingly rely on digital infrastructures — ranging from cloud computing and artificial intelligence to e-government platforms — the potential vulnerabilities related to cyber threats is increasing.

This area should be viewed as a central component of national security and economic policy. In countries such as Saudi Arabia, substantial investments are being directed toward building robust cybersecurity frameworks, developing indigenous capabilities and partnerships with global technology firms.

They collectively form the backbone of a digital strategy that can redefine the economic identity of the region

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh
Such efforts protect sensitive data and infrastructure but also establish trust in digital systems, which is critical for attracting foreign investment and enabling the growth of digital markets.

Cybersecurity plays a role in the credibility of digital economies. Amid increasing geopolitical tensions and the weaponization of cyber capabilities, the ability to safeguard digital infrastructure is directly linked to a nation’s strategic autonomy and stability.

Furthermore, as sectors such as finance, healthcare and energy become increasingly digitized, the potential economic costs of cyber disruptions grow exponentially. As a result, countries that succeed in developing advanced cybersecurity ecosystems will not only protect their own digital assets but also position themselves as trusted hubs for global data flows and digital services. This, in turn, enhances their attractiveness for foreign investments and multinational corporations seeking secure environments for their operations.

The second key domain is the fintech sector, which is a driver of financial transformation and economic diversification. The adoption of digital payment systems, mobile banking, blockchain technologies and decentralized financial platforms has expanded significantly in some Middle Eastern nations. In the Gulf, governments and central banks have actively supported the development of fintech ecosystems. This financial modernization is essential for integrating regional economies into the global digital marketplace.

Fintech is important because it reduces transaction costs, is more inclusive and enhances efficiency, enabling individuals and small businesses to participate more fully in economic activities. This is a kind of democratization of finance, which stimulates economic growth.

One of the important benefits of adopting this approach is to reduce nations’ susceptibility to external shocks

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh
The third vital issue is the development of smart cities. Smart cities address issues such as urban expansion, rapid population growth and environmental challenges. This is done by integrating advanced technologies into urban infrastructure and governance systems. Projects such as Neom in Saudi Arabia exemplify this, creating technologically advanced, sustainable and highly efficient urban environments that serve as hubs of innovation and economic activity.

Smart cities will attract global talent and investment. At the same time, they need the other two domains, robust cybersecurity and fintech. Therefore, strategic investment in all three areas is key to economic diversification in the Middle East.

One of the important benefits of adopting this approach is to reduce nations’ susceptibility to external shocks, which will also make them an attractive destination for multinational corporations, startups and investors. This, in turn, enhances the region’s role in the international economy.

As countries transition ever more to the digital economy, demand for high-skilled labor increases. This means that governments must invest in education and training programs aimed at equipping their populations with the necessary skills for a digital environment. These programs should focus on science, technology, engineering, mathematics and data analytics.

To successfully position themselves as leading digital and technological centers, Middle Eastern countries must pursue a multidimensional approach that includes creating an environment for innovation, adopting flexible and adaptive regulatory frameworks, and significant investments in digital infrastructure. Public-private partnerships and international collaboration play a critical role as well.

In a nutshell, for the future of the Middle East, cybersecurity, fintech and smart cities are three fundamental pillars for strategic investment because they play a critical role in creating diversified, resilient and globally competitive economies. Saudi Arabia is particularly well positioned to lead this transition, given its strategic vision and commitment to large-scale investment.

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist.

Source: https://arab.news/556a2

Crisis Shakes Economic Indicators in the Middle East; A 2.2% Contraction Is Expected in 2026

Economi

Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are putting significant pressure on regional economies, while growth expectations for 2026 have been revised sharply downward.

According to the latest Economic Update report published by ICAEW, the effects of the Iran-centered conflict are directly impacting the economic outlook of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries.

The report states that the global economy is expected to grow by 2.6% this year. This figure points below the narrow 2.8% to 3.0% range seen over the past three years. However, the outlook for the Middle East is significantly weaker. The regional economy, which was projected to grow by 3.6% three months ago, is now expected to contract by 2.2% in 2026. This sharp revision is driven by the combined effects of volatility in energy markets, disruptions in trade flows, and a slowdown in the tourism sector.

GCC Economic Growth Forecast Revised Down to -0.2%

For GCC economies, a more limited but still notable contraction is expected. The region’s 2026 growth forecast has been lowered by 4.6 percentage points over the past three months to -0.2%. Analysts emphasize that this contraction will be more pronounced in economies that are more dependent on trade and tourism. However, a strong recovery is expected in 2027, with GCC economies projected to grow by 8.5% next year.

Brent Oil Prices May Reach $113

Energy markets are among the areas where the effects of the current crisis are most visible. As the conflict escalated, Brent oil prices have exceeded $100 per barrel since mid-March, with the second-quarter average expected to reach $113. While prices are projected to return to pre-crisis levels by 2028 in the long term, high volatility is expected to persist in the short term.

Natural Gas Prices Are 60% Higher

A sharper shock is being observed in natural gas markets. Due to disruptions in Qatar’s liquefied natural gas production, gas prices are reported to be approximately 60% higher compared to forecasts made three months ago. This situation continues to impact both regional and global economies through increased energy costs.

Disruptions in logistics lines are also among the key factors negatively affecting the economic outlook. Transit through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global energy transportation, has been severely disrupted. Under normal conditions, 18 million barrels of oil pass through the strait daily, but approximately 7 million barrels of this volume are now being rerouted through alternative pipelines. However, countries such as Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar have limited alternative routes, leading to production cuts.

In line with these developments, the GCC oil sector is expected to contract by 5.8% in 2026. However, a strong recovery of 18.2% is projected for 2027.

Tourism Could Decline by 27%

The tourism and travel sector is also among the most affected areas of the crisis. Due to airspace closures and flight cancellations, the number of international visitors to the Middle East is expected to decline by between 11% and 27% this year. This decline corresponds to approximately 23 million to 38 million fewer visitors. The loss in tourism revenues is estimated to range between $34 billion and $56 billion.

On the consumer side, a slowdown in spending is anticipated due to declining confidence and rising inflation expectations. Household consumption growth in GCC countries is expected to fall to 1.4% in 2026, marking a 2.6 percentage point decline compared to forecasts three months ago. In contrast, consumption is expected to grow by 6% in 2027.

The inflation outlook in the region has also been revised upward. Inflation in GCC countries is expected to reach 2.5% in 2026, before easing to 2.4% in 2027. Rising costs are primarily driven by disruptions in logistics and imports.

Notable Declines in Dubai and Abu Dhabi Stock Markets

In financial markets, increasing geopolitical risks have created a more cautious investment environment. Significant declines have been observed in the Dubai and Abu Dhabi stock markets, while markets in countries such as Oman and Saudi Arabia have remained relatively more resilient.

The report also notes that Iran’s economy is expected to contract by 9.4% in 2026. At the same time, escalating conflicts in Lebanon and the displacement of 20% to 25% of the population are highlighted as major risks to regional recovery.

Overall, while the current crisis is creating significant short-term economic pressure, the region’s strong structural fundamentals and investment potential continue to support expectations of a medium-term recovery. However, the pace and scope of this recovery will largely depend on the course of geopolitical developments.