Türkiye’s e-commerce sector is expected to generate nearly $9 billion in transaction volume this May as online shopping activity accelerates ahead of Mother’s Day, according to industry representatives. The surge highlights the growing importance of special occasions in driving digital commerce across the country.
What Happened?
The Electronic Commerce Operators Association (ETİD) estimates that Türkiye’s total e-commerce volume could reach around 400 billion Turkish Liras (approximately $9 billion) during May, fueled largely by Mother’s Day shopping demand.
According to ETİD Chairman Hakan Çevikoğlu, online demand has significantly increased across several gift-oriented categories, including:
Jewelry
Fashion and footwear
Cosmetics
Home textiles
Baby products
Accessories and handbags
Çevikoğlu stated that Mother’s Day has become Türkiye’s second-largest gift shopping period after New Year celebrations, with online purchasing activity beginning in late April and continuing throughout May.
Jewelry and Fashion Lead the Growth
The strongest increase in demand has been recorded in the jewelry category, particularly gold products, where order volumes reportedly climbed by as much as 70 percent ahead of the holiday.
Average basket sizes have also increased in several product categories. Spending per order rose by around 20 percent in home textile and baby product segments, while fashion-related purchases such as sunglasses, accessories, handbags, and clothing also recorded higher average spending levels.
Industry representatives attribute much of the momentum to aggressive promotional campaigns launched by online marketplaces and retailers before the holiday period.
Digital Shopping Habits Continue to Grow
The latest figures reflect Türkiye’s broader shift toward digital commerce and mobile shopping habits. Consumers are increasingly turning to online platforms for seasonal and emotionally driven purchases, including flowers, chocolates, and curated gift boxes.
Çevikoğlu noted that the growing digitalization of consumer behavior continues to strengthen the role of e-commerce during special shopping occasions and seasonal campaigns.
Consumers Warned About Online Fraud Risks
Alongside the expected growth, industry representatives also warned consumers to remain cautious while shopping online during high-demand periods.
ETİD advised shoppers to verify whether e-commerce websites carry Türkiye’s official “Trust Stamp” certification and to carefully check website domain names to avoid fraudulent or imitation platforms.
What This Means for Türkiye’s E-Commerce Sector
The projected Mother’s Day shopping boom highlights the continued expansion of Türkiye’s digital retail ecosystem despite economic pressures and changing consumer spending patterns.
As promotional campaigns, mobile commerce adoption, and digital payment usage continue to grow, seasonal shopping periods are becoming increasingly important revenue drivers for marketplaces, retailers, and logistics providers across the country.
Relations between Türkiye and Algeria are being carried to a new strategic dimension through increasing diplomatic contacts and economic cooperation in recent years. Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune’s third state visit to Türkiye is considered an indication that relations between the two countries have reached a historic level.
According to experts, within the new geopolitical balances taking shape in the Middle East and North Africa region, the possibility of Algeria joining the new power axis formed by Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Egypt is growing stronger.
Energy Diplomacy Comes to the Fore
Algeria’s strong position, especially in natural gas reserves and energy exports, is increasing the country’s regional influence. As one of Africa and Europe’s important gas suppliers, Algeria uses energy diplomacy as one of the main elements of its foreign policy.
Türkiye, meanwhile, aims to increase the amount of liquefied natural gas it imports from Algeria in order to meet its growing energy needs. Cooperation between the two countries in the energy field is planned to be further strengthened through long-term agreements.
In addition, new energy corridors for transporting Algerian natural gas to the Balkans and Southeast Europe through Türkiye are also on the agenda.
Economic relations between Türkiye and Algeria are also growing significantly. While the trade volume between the two countries has recently reached $5.3 billion, the parties aim to increase this figure to $10 billion by 2030.
Approximately 1,400 Turkish companies operating in Algeria make Türkiye one of the country’s largest investors in non-hydrocarbon sectors. Iron and steel, textiles, agriculture and banking are among the main areas where cooperation is concentrated.
The large-scale steel investments carried out by Turkish company Tosyalı Holding in Algeria are seen among Africa’s most important industrial projects.
Common Position on Regional Issues
Türkiye and Algeria have recently displayed similar diplomatic positions on many issues, including the Gaza war, the Sudan crisis, security problems in Africa’s Sahel region and Iran-centered tensions.
Both countries draw attention with their policies that support a multipolar world order and emphasize non-Western diplomatic approaches. The Ankara and Algiers administrations also share similar views on United Nations reform and the restructuring of the global governance system.
Discussions on a New Regional Alliance Gain Strength
Analysts state that the developing strategic rapprochement between Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Pakistan could reshape regional power balances. In this process, Algeria could assume a critical role due to its energy strength, diplomatic influence and position in Africa. According to experts, the rapprochement between Ankara and Algiers may produce significant results not only in terms of bilateral relations but also in terms of new diplomatic and economic balances in the Middle East, North Africa and the African continent.
As the global effects of the war in the Middle East continue to be seen, the Gulf countries, which held an important place in Türkiye’s cross-border e-commerce strategy, have been taken off the route. The new target of companies engaged in e-export in Türkiye has become Eastern Europe and the Turkic Republics. Twelve percent of e-export sales in Türkiye had been made to Gulf countries.
Due to the attacks by the United States and Israel against Iran and Iran’s subsequent targeting of Gulf countries, the war that broke out in the Middle East brought trade traffic almost to a halt. According to a report in Hürriyet, the war led to changes in Middle East cross-border e-commerce strategies in many countries. E-exporters in Türkiye also turned their route toward Eastern Europe and the Turkic Republics.
Türkiye’s Exports to Gulf Countries Fell 37 Percent Month-on-Month
According to the Turkish Ministry of Trade’s March 2026 data, Türkiye’s exports to Gulf countries fell by 37 percent month-on-month to $1.3 billion. In just one month, there was a loss of $815 million in exports to the countries of the region. The biggest loss was in Qatar, with a decline of 83 percent. In 2025, total exports to Gulf countries had amounted to approximately $31.1 billion, accounting for 11.4 percent of total exports.
Due to its logistics advantage, the Gulf region is also an important market for e-exports in Türkiye. The Gulf region had become a critical growth center in Türkiye’s e-export strategy. E-exports came under risk in the shadow of rising geopolitical tensions. According to sector representatives, Gulf countries, especially Dubai, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia, had been a “premium growth market” in recent years due to high basket averages, demand for luxury and fast-moving consumer goods, and the strong perception of Turkish brands.
Saudi Arabia Ranks First in E-Exports
According to the data of the Turkish Ministry of Trade, Saudi Arabia ranks first in e-exports in the Gulf region with a share of 39 percent. Iraq is in second place with 23.6 percent. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE account for approximately 85 percent of Türkiye’s total e-exports to the Gulf region.
Representatives of the e-commerce and e-export sectors in Türkiye evaluated the effects of the Middle East war:
Mustafa Namoğlu: The war changed all plans and expectations
Mustafa Namoğlu, Co-Founder and CEO of ikas: “At the beginning of the year, there was a picture supporting sales to Gulf countries. However, the war changed all plans and expectations. High-value products see less demand during periods such as war, when general needs come to the forefront. Because the tension has affected energy markets, supply chains around the world have come under stress. This also leaves open the question of whether we can turn to other markets. Because the global economy has started to come under threat.”
Cenk Çiğdemli: European countries are leading this search
Cenk Çiğdemli, Member of the E-Commerce Council of the Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges of Türkiye (TOBB): “E-commerce companies focus all their campaigns on the Gulf. However, this changed with the war. Our companies are cautious about Gulf countries, and the search for alternative markets has accelerated. In this search, European countries are leading the way. North Africa, the Turkic Republics, and especially Eastern Europe are on our agenda. Investments and marketing budgets are shifting to these regions.”
Mustafa Gültepe: The war affected jewelry, cereals, and automotive the most
Mustafa Gültepe, Chairman of the Turkish Exporters Assembly (TİM): “Last month, our exports to all countries in the region except Oman declined. There is a loss of 30 percent in Iraq, 48 percent in the UAE, 41 percent in Iran, 29 percent in Saudi Arabia, 83 percent in Qatar, 70 percent in Kuwait, and nearly 81 percent in Bahrain. The war affected jewelry, cereals, and automotive the most.”
The recent deadlock at the World Trade Organization (WTO) over e-commerce duties may sound technical. It is not. What we are witnessing is a fundamental disagreement about the rules of the digital economy and, more importantly, about who gets to capture its value.
At the center of the debate is the WTO’s long-standing e-commerce moratorium, a rule that prevents countries from imposing customs duties on electronic transmissions such as software, streaming, and cloud services. After nearly 30 years in place, this rule is now under serious scrutiny.
What Is the WTO E-Commerce Moratorium?
The WTO e-commerce moratorium, first introduced in 1998, ensures that digital products and services can cross borders without tariffs.
However, the rule does not apply to physical goods.
If you buy a piece of furniture from abroad, it is subject to tax. If you download software from abroad, it is not. This is the core issue. A container of chairs crossing a border is taxed, while a million-dollar SaaS subscription crossing digitally is not taxed
From a policy standpoint, this asymmetry is becoming harder to justify, especially for emerging economies.
Why Brazil, Türkiye, India and Others Said “No” to the WTO E-Commerce Deal
The WTO talks collapsed after Brazil, supported by countries such as Türkiye and aligned with India’s broader stance, refused to agree to a long-term extension of the moratorium.
Their argument is actually quite rational:
The digital economy is still evolving
Governments should not give up taxation rights too early
Digital imports are growing rapidly, but remain untaxed
In simple terms: “Why should we permanently give up the right to tax the fastest-growing part of the global economy?”
This is not protectionism. It is strategic hesitation.
Why the U.S. and EU Support Extending the Moratorium
The United States and European Union strongly advocate for extending the WTO e-commerce moratorium, preferably on a long-term or permanent basis.
Their motivations are clear:
They dominate global digital service exports
Their companies rely on frictionless cross-border data flows
Tariffs on digital services would increase costs and reduce scalability
For these economies, maintaining a duty-free digital environment is essential for sustaining global competitiveness. For them, this rule is not just convenient, but also structural. Without it, global scaling slows down, SaaS becomes more expensive, and platforms face fragmented regulations.
The Real Conflict: Digital Trade vs Traditional Trade
The WTO deadlock reflects a deeper structural issue in global trade:
Traditional Trade
Digital Trade
Physical goods
Intangible services
Subject to tariffs
Currently duty-free
Border-based taxation
Borderless delivery
Emerging economies argue that this imbalance creates an unequal playing field. If physical goods are taxed, why should digital goods remain exempt?
This is often framed as a “developed vs developing” conflict. That is only partially true. The deeper divide is this:
Digital exporters want open, duty-free flows
Digital importers want the right to regulate and tax
This is a clash between two economic realities, one built on platforms and data, and the other still balancing industry, revenue, and transition.
Why This Matters for E-Commerce
For the global e-commerce ecosystem, the implications are significant.
If the moratorium is not extended:
Countries may introduce digital import duties
Cross-border SaaS and platform costs could increase
E-commerce operations could become fragmented by regulation
This would directly impact:
Online marketplaces
Subscription-based business models
Cross-border digital service providers
For regions like the UAE, which position themselves as global e-commerce hubs, maintaining predictable digital trade rules is critical; this could introduce friction into what has so far been a relatively seamless system.
What Happens Next in WTO Negotiations?
Following the deadlock, WTO members will continue discussions in Geneva. The most likely outcome is a short-term extension (2 years), rather than a long-term agreement. However, this does not resolve the underlying issue. The central question remains: Should digital trade be treated the same as physical trade?
From where I stand, working at the intersection of e-commerce, platforms, and global trade, this debate is inevitable. And frankly, overdue. For years, the digital economy has operated in a kind of regulatory grey zone: Borderless, Frictionless, largely untaxed at the transmission level. That model helped accelerate growth. But it also created an imbalance.
The question now is not whether rules will change. They will. The real question is, will those rules enable growth—or fragment it?
The WTO deadlock is often described as a failure. I see it differently. The WTO e-commerce moratorium deadlock is not a temporary disruption. It is a reflection of a broader transformation in the global economy.
We are moving from trade in goods to trade in data and from physical borders to digital jurisdictions
The outcome of this debate will shape:
The cost of digital services
The scalability of e-commerce platforms
The structure of global trade itself
The real question is no longer whether digital trade rules will change. It is, how and in whose favour they will be rewritten.
