German e-commerce is expected to continue outperforming physical retail in 2026, but rising marketplace concentration and foreign platform sales are raising concerns among local retailers.

German e-commerce is set to remain the main growth driver of the country’s retail sector in 2026, according to the German Retail Federation, known as HDE. The federation forecasts nominal e-commerce revenue in Germany to rise by 4.3 per cent this year, reaching 96.3 billion euros. By comparison, sales generated through physical stores are expected to grow by only 1.6 percent.

The figures show that German e-commerce continues to expand faster than brick-and-mortar retail, even in a more cautious consumer environment. HDE describes online retail as the “growth engine of retail,” reflecting the increasing importance of digital channels in Germany’s consumer market.

However, the growth of German e-commerce does not automatically mean that German retailers are benefiting equally. A growing share of online spending is flowing through large marketplaces and international platforms, creating a more complex competitive picture for local merchants.

German e-commerce is expected to continue outperforming physical retail in 2026

Marketplaces remain one of the strongest forces in German e-commerce. Last year, they accounted for 56.7 per cent of all online sales in the country. Their share is expected to increase again this year, although the pace of growth has slowed. This suggests that online shoppers in Germany continue to prefer marketplace-based shopping, but the market may be entering a more mature phase.

The dominance of marketplaces reflects broader changes in consumer behaviour. Shoppers often use large platforms for product variety, competitive prices, convenient delivery, customer reviews, and simple return processes. For retailers, however, dependence on marketplaces can create pressure on margins, customer ownership, and brand visibility.

One of the key concerns raised by HDE is the role of international platforms in the German e-commerce market. The federation says a large share of online spending takes place on major international platforms without the involvement of German sellers. According to HDE, Shein and Temu together generate around 4.7 billion euros in sales in Germany.

This has intensified debate around fair competition. HDE argues that Chinese platforms such as Shein and Temu benefit from advantages that may not be equally available to European or German retailers. These concerns include product safety, customs enforcement, tax compliance, consumer protection, environmental standards, and regulators’ ability to monitor large volumes of low-value parcels entering the market.

According to HDE, 65 per cent of German consumers have purchased from a foreign online store at least once. Among those cross-border shoppers, nearly half have bought from a Chinese retailer. This means that more than three in ten Germans have experience shopping on Chinese platforms.

These figures highlight how international German e-commerce has become from the consumer side. German shoppers are no longer limited to domestic online stores or European platforms. They are increasingly comfortable buying from global sellers, especially when prices are low, and delivery options are accessible.

For German retailers, this creates a difficult competitive environment. They must compete not only with domestic rivals, but also with global platforms that operate at large scale and often use aggressive pricing strategies. Smaller online retailers may find it harder to match the product range, marketing budgets, logistics capabilities, and pricing flexibility of major platforms.

Stephan Tromp, Deputy Managing Director of HDE, said the marketplace sector remains highly dynamic and stressed the need for fair competition. He argued that policymakers should take stronger action against violations and ensure that regulations are clearly enforceable. According to HDE’s position, companies should expect that rule breaches will be detected and meaningfully penalized.

Market concentration is another major issue in German e-commerce. An increasing share of online consumer spending is going to a small number of large players, with Amazon remaining the dominant platform. Germany is Amazon’s largest European market, and the company reportedly recorded another year of strong revenue growth in the country.

This concentration has important implications for the structure of German e-commerce. Large platforms can offer scale, convenience, and advanced logistics, but their dominance can also make it harder for independent retailers to grow. In recent years, many smaller online retailers in Germany have seen revenues decline, while leading platforms have continued to expand.

The German e-commerce market therefore presents a mixed picture. On one hand, online retail remains one of the strongest areas of growth in the broader retail sector. On the other hand, the benefits of that growth are not evenly distributed. Marketplaces, international platforms, and dominant players are capturing an increasing share of consumer spending.

For policymakers, the challenge will be to support digital retail growth while ensuring fair and enforceable rules. For retailers, the challenge will be to compete in a marketplace-driven environment without losing direct customer relationships. German e-commerce remains a growth engine, but its future will increasingly depend on how competition, regulation, and platform power are managed.