Family Offices Brace for Slower Growth, Higher Risks

Global family offices are tempering their expectations amid rising economic headwinds, according to a recent survey by RBC Wealth Management and Campden Wealth. Nearly half of respondents (48 %) said they are focusing on improving liquidity, while one-third (33 %) are actively de-risking their portfolios.

Key Findings

The survey revealed that family offices identify major near-term risks including:

• U.S. tariff announcements seen as constraining global growth (60 %) Rising inflation (55 %)

• A potential U.S. recession (47 %) Markets Group

Looking two to five years ahead, these offices also flagged concerns such as excessive government borrowing (56 %), on-shoring of supply chains (31 %) and a potential depreciation of the dollar (31 %) as significant structural risks.

Investment-return expectations for 2025 averaged just 5 % — markedly lower than the 11 % average expected in the prior year. About 15 % of respondents anticipate negative returns. Markets Group

Asset-Allocation Shifts

In response to the less-bullish environment, family offices are making tactical shifts:

• A majority (52 %) expect cash or cash-equivalents to deliver the best returns in the next 12 months. Markets Group

• Artificial intelligence remains a top long-term theme, with 75 % of respondents citing it as likely to reward shareholders in the medium term. Clean energy (56 %), growth equities (54 %) and large-cap North American equities (41 %) also featured prominently. Markets Group

• Private markets remain central, with 88 % of offices retaining private-market exposure, but the share of such assets slipped from 30 % to 29 %. Markets Group

Strategic Implications

The mood among family offices has shifted from opportunity-driven growth to caution and preservation. The findings reflect growing recognition of elevated macro and geopolitical risks, combined with more conservative return assumptions. As one research lead at Campden Wealth noted, “family offices have become notably more cautious stewards of capital.” Markets Group

This recalibration has several implications for asset managers and advisors:

• Liquidity-management tools are gaining prominence as families prefer flexibility over commitment in uncertain markets.

• Portfolio construction may lean more toward quality assets and greater diversification — especially in sectors less sensitive to growth cycles.

• Risk-monitoring frameworks will likely strengthen around macro-tail risks, supply-chain dislocations and regulatory transitions.

• The push for innovation (such as AI) continues, but deployment timing, scale and return horizons may be extended.

A More Complex Investment Landscape

Family offices now navigate a more complex set of parameters. Tariffs, inflation, stagflation risks, higher policy-rates and structural shifts in technology and supply chains are all shaping decision-making. The expectation of lower returns is leading many to reassess traditional models of growth-oriented portfolios.

Some strategies emerging in this environment include:

• Higher allocations to liquid assets or short-duration fixed income to preserve optionality.

• Greater focus on thematic and structural plays (e.g., AI, clean energy) rather than cyclical bets.

• Increased emphasis on governance, operational resilience and data-driven decision-making.

• More cautious entry into private markets, given longer investment horizons and exit-path uncertainties.

Outlook

While family offices remain inclined to deploy capital into innovation and private markets, the pace and size of commitments may slow. The shift toward finding “less-risk, more-resilience” in portfolios suggests the next 12-18 months may see incremental rebalancing rather than aggressive expansion.

However, the long-term belief in transformative themes like AI remains strong. For asset-management firms, this environment presents opportunities to service both defensive and growth-oriented mandates tailoring solutions for preservation and innovation simultaneously.

Conclusion

The survey captures a clear pivot in family-office strategy: from optimism about outsized returns to a mindset centered on defence, resilience and prudent growth. As macro-risks rise and expected returns shrink, these institutions are preparing for a slower growth era. Their approach now emphasizes liquidity, diversification and selective exposure — all while keeping a watchful eye on the long-term opportunities that still remain.